城市可持续发展的预警实证研究(IJEME-V3-N1-11)

I.J.EducationandManagementEngineering,2013,1,60-65PublishedOnlineJanuary2013inMECS()DOI:10.5815/ijeme.2013.01.11Availableonlineat:Fuzzymatterelement;city;sustainabledevelopment;forewarningmodel©2013PublishedbyMECSPublisher.Selectionand/orpeerreviewunderresponsibilityoftheInternationalConferenceonE-BusinessSystemandEducationTechnology1.INTRODUCTIONTheforewarningsystemofurbansustainabledevelopment(SD)isacomplicatedsystemcombinedwithsociety,economy,environment,resources,aimstopreventthecitydevelopingdeviatedfromitssustainableroute;toforeseethetrendandspeedoftheinversechangetotheSustainableDevelopment;toavoidseriousconflictsbetweenurbandevelopmentandenvironmentprotection[1-2].Thisessaysetsupaforewarningmodelfortheurbansustainabledevelopment,basesonthereferencetorelatedresearch,andtakesNantongcityasanempiricalexample.2.URBANSUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENTFOREWARNINGMODELA.TheestablishmentofforewarningstandardInordertodotheresearch,wedividetheforewarningintofourdegrees,thatisnoalert,lightalert,mid-degreealert,heavyalert,andintherange0-10levelwithinthedivision.Forthesmallerthemoresuperiortype,thecorrelationbetweenforewarningcriteriaandindicatorsrangeintable1.S1,S2,S3isanindicatorofforewarningthresholdofthecriteria,correspondingly,thereare4levelsindexvalue,whichrespectivelyestablishescorrespondencewithindexrangeofindicatorsstandard.Similarly,theindexrangeofthebiggertheworsesuperiortypecanbeconcluded[3].*Correspondingauthor:Shi-xiaZhangE-mailaddress:[e-mail]rningofUrbanSustainableDevelopment61TABLEI.THEALERTDEGREEANDINDEXAlertdegreeNoalertLightalertMid-degreealertHeavyalertForewarningindex[0,2.5)[2.5,5)[5,7.5)[7.5,10)IndexrangeS3[S3,S2)[S2,S1)≥S1B.Standardfuzzymatter-elementOnthebasisofdeterminingfuzzymatter-element,combinedwithforewarningstandards,wecalculatethestandardforewarningindicatorsofevaluationindex,thenestablishanewstandardfuzzymatter-element.concerningthesmallerthemoresuperiortypeofindicators,takeS1,S2,S3intable1forexamples,evaluationindexcorrespondingfuzzymatter-elementoftheforewarningindicatorscanbecalculatedinaccordancewiththefollowingformula:Noalert:)()(5.25.2333ijijijUSSSUXLightalert:)()()(5.2523322SUSSSSUXijijijMid-degreealert:)()()(5.25.712211SUSSSSUXijijijHeavyalert:)()(5.25.7111ijijijUSSSUXIfXij＜0,thenthevalueis0;ifXij＞10,thenthevalueis10.Uijisthevalueofindicators.Bythesametoken,thebiggerthemoresuperiortypeofindicatorscanbecalculated,receivedthestandardfuzzymatter-elementasfollows:mnnnnmmXXXcXXXcXXXcMMMRmij2122212212111121(1)Intheaboveformula,theRijrepresentsmatteri’scjthcharacterfuzzymatterelement,i=1,2,…,m;j=1,2,…,n.C.ThedeterminingofforewarningindexweightsInthispaper,weuseanalytichierarchyprocess(AHP)todeterminetherelativeimportanceorderbetweentheevaluationindexes,thusgettheweightofevaluationofindex,andpriortonormalizationinthesynthesis,namely:),,2,1,0(11niwwinii(2)62EmpiricalStudyonForewarningofUrbanSustainableDevelopmentD.ComprehensiveforewarningmodelAcomprehensiveforewarninganalysisfortheSDsystemisthekeymethodtomeasuredevelopmentstatusofsystemcomprehensively.Basedonfuzzymatter-elementmatrixandtheindexweightset,weightn-dimensionalmatter-element,calculatecomprehensiveforewarningindicators,thecalculationmodelasfollows:)I,(),,,(m2,1111212122212212111121IIXWXWXWMXXcMXXcMXXcMMMWRWInjnjnjmjjjjjjmnnnnmmmjijji(3)Accordingtoindexrangecorrespondingtoforewarninglevelinforewarningstandards,judgemonematter’scomprehensiveforewarningindicatorsIi(i=1,2,…,m)belongstothealertdegree,thenpublishingaforewarningreport.3.SDFOREWARNINGEVALUATIONOFNANTONGCITYA.ForewarningindexsystemToestablishaforewarningindexsystem(FIS),wemustselectquantifiableindicatorsandobtainsomestatisticaldata,meanwhile,thechangeofindexhasabiggerimpactonsustainabledevelopment.Inthispaper,basedonthereferencetorelatedresearch,weselect15evaluationsfromeconomics,society,environmentthreeaspectstoestablishsystem[4].Theindicatorhierarchyisshownintable2.B.ThedeterminingofforewarningindexweightsAccordingtoindexhierarchyintable2,basedontherelativeimportanceorderbetweentheevaluationindexesthatdeterminedbyspecialists,weuseAHPtobuildcomparisonmatrix,thencalculateindexweightlevelbylevel,takeconsistencytests.C.ForewarningstandardssettingCombinedwithitsowncharacteristicsofNantongurbandevelopment,inaccordancewithfavorablemembershipdegreeprincipleinforewarningreferencestandardssetting,basedonreferencetorelatedresearchresults,thispaperdeterminesthelimitsofdifferentindexes,r