SubprimeCrisis__次贷危机形成及传导机制

UnderstandingtheSubprimeCrisisYuGaoDepartmentofWorldEconomySchoolofEconomicsFudanUniversityFUDANUNIVERSITY1905UnderstandingtheSubprimeCrisisOutline1HowdifferentmortgageloanmarketsworkTraditionalmortgageloanmarketModernmortgageloanmarket2AcompleteexplanationofthesubprimecrisisTherolesofdifferentparticipantsTransmissionmechanism3CommentsandConclusions4Q&A2/29UnderstandingtheSubprimeCrisisDifferentmortgageloanmarketsTraditionalmarketALookintoResidentialMortgageMarketInChina3/29UnderstandingtheSubprimeCrisisDifferentmortgageloanmarketsModernmarketALookintoResidentialMortgageMarketIntheU.S.4/29UnderstandingtheSubprimeCrisisAcompleteexplanationTherolesofdifferentparticipantsHomeBuyersBorrowersWithoutsteadyjobsWeakercredithistoriesSubprimemortgageloansLittledownpaymentHigherinterestrates5/29UnderstandingtheSubprimeCrisisAcompleteexplanationTherolesofdifferentparticipantsHomeBuyersBorrowersWithoutsteadyjobsWeakercredithistoriesSubprimemortgageloansLittledownpaymentHigherinterestrates5/29UnderstandingtheSubprimeCrisisAcompleteexplanationTherolesofdifferentparticipantsMortgageBrokersAdjustable-ratemortgages(ARM)“Teaserrates”ForgeriesofdocumentsIncreasedsubprimemortgages6/29UnderstandingtheSubprimeCrisisAcompleteexplanationTherolesofdifferentparticipantsMortgageBrokersAdjustable-ratemortgages(ARM)“Teaserrates”ForgeriesofdocumentsIncreasedsubprimemortgages6/29UnderstandingtheSubprimeCrisisAcompleteexplanationTherolesofdifferentparticipantsMortgageBrokersAdjustable-ratemortgages(ARM)“Teaserrates”ForgeriesofdocumentsIncreasedsubprimemortgages6/29UnderstandingtheSubprimeCrisisAcompleteexplanationTherolesofdifferentparticipantsMortgageBrokersAdjustable-ratemortgages(ARM)“Teaserrates”ForgeriesofdocumentsIncreasedsubprimemortgages6/29UnderstandingtheSubprimeCrisisAcompleteexplanationTherolesofdifferentparticipantsMortgageBrokersAdjustable-ratemortgages(ARM)“Teaserrates”ForgeriesofdocumentsIncreasedsubprimemortgages6/29UnderstandingtheSubprimeCrisisAcompleteexplanationTherolesofdifferentparticipantsMortgageLendersRevenuesfrommortgagesQualificationguidelineslooseIncreaseofsubprimemortgages1994:$35billion(5%oftotaloriginations)1996:$160billion(13%)2006:$600billion(20%)Disadvantages&Motivations7/29UnderstandingtheSubprimeCrisisAcompleteexplanationTherolesofdifferentparticipantsMortgageLendersRevenuesfrommortgagesQualificationguidelineslooseIncreaseofsubprimemortgages1994:$35billion(5%oftotaloriginations)1996:$160billion(13%)2006:$600billion(20%)Disadvantages&Motivations7/29UnderstandingtheSubprimeCrisisAcompleteexplanationTherolesofdifferentparticipantsLargeMortgageLoanCorporationsLargeprivatecompanies:e.g.,NewCenturyFinancialGSEs:GovernmentSponsoredEnterprisesFrannieMaeandFreddieMacApprovedbytheCongressBuymortgageloansfromotheragenciesRiskshiftingbysecuritization8/29UnderstandingtheSubprimeCrisisAcompleteexplanationTherolesofdifferentparticipantsSecuritizationWhatissecuritization?TheWallStreetquotation:Aslongasanassetcancreatestablecashflows,thenitcanbesecuritized.Securitizationistheprocessoftakinganilliquidasset,orgroupofassets,andthroughfinancialengi-neering,transformingthemintoasecuritywithspe-cificrisk-returncharacteristics.Securitizationistheprocessoftakinganilliquidasset,orgroupofassets,andthroughfinancialengi-neering,transformingthemintoasecuritywithspe-cificrisk-returncharacteristics.Securitizationistheprocessoftakinganilliquidasset,orgroupofassets,andthroughfinancialengi-neering,transformingthemintoasecuritywithspe-cificrisk-returncharacteristics.Securitizationistheprocessoftakinganilliquidasset,orgroupofassets,andthroughfinancialengi-neering,transformingthemintoasecuritywithspe-cificrisk-returncharacteristics.Securitizationistheprocessoftakinganilliquidasset,orgroupofassets,andthroughfinancialengi-neering,transformingthemintoasecuritywithspe-cificrisk-returncharacteristics.Securitizationistheprocessoftakinganilliquidasset,orgroupofassets,andthroughfinancialengi-neering,transformingthemintoasecuritywithspe-cificrisk-returncharacteristics.Securitizationistheprocessoftakinganilliquidasset,orgroupofassets,andthroughfinancialengi-neering,transformingthemintoasecuritywithspe-cificrisk-returncharacteristics.Securitizationistheprocessoftakinganilliquidasset,orgroupofassets,andthroughfinancialengi-neering,transformingthemintoasecuritywithspe-cificrisk-returncharacteristics.Securitizationistheprocessoftakinganilliquidasset,orgroupofassets,andthroughfinancialengi-neering,transformingthemintoasecuritywithspe-cificrisk-returncharacteristics.Securitizationistheprocessoftakinganilliquidasset,orgroupofassets,andthroughfinancialengi-neering,transformingthemintoasecuritywithspe-cificrisk-returncharacteristics.Securitizationistheprocessoftakinganilliquidasset,orgroupofassets,andthroughfinancialengi-neering,transformingthemintoasecuritywithspe-cificrisk-returncharacteristics.Securitizationistheprocessoftakinganilliquidasset,orgroupofassets,andthroughfinancialengi-neering,transformingthemintoasecuritywithspe-cificrisk-returncharacteristics.Securitizationistheproces