普华永道2019中国光伏电站资产交易白皮书2019360页

2019TÜV20185.315.31/500TÜV20192019驰骋TÜVTÜVTÜVTÜVTÜVTÜVTÜVTÜVTÜVTÜVTÜVTÜVTÜV01第一章中国光伏市场概要1.11.2020448第六章国内光伏电站交易指南6.16.2-495009第二章光伏电站资产交易情况2.12.22.310111215第三章光伏电站资产交易调研3.13.2161724第四章光伏电站资产交易中典型技术风险对交易的潜在影响4.14.24.34.44.5263436384041第五章光伏电站资产交易中的常见财务、税务、商业、估值事项及对交易的潜在影响5.15.25.35.45.55.64243444445462019120192201920070.02GW201753.06GW2017130.25GW1.49%2018612018(531)201844.26GW16.58%20181.1中国光伏市场发展历程GWGW0.10GW/Y1.53GW/Y10.03GW/Y44.2640.42%35.58%174.51320191.1.1阶段一：2009年前，成长起步阶段规模小：20091GW1%市场化程度低：80%-90%1.1.2阶段二：2010-2012年，初步发展阶段规模提升快：5GW201220107政策支持力度大，推进国内市场发展：20082012200950%70%1113621311MW政策不够成熟引发市场寻租：20132013-20171.1.3阶段三：2013-2017年，快速发展规模化阶段规模大且增速快：201312.92GW201753.06GW40%2013201750%20131.26%20177.33%20130.16%20171.49%光伏标杆电价补贴政策出台且持续调整：201382016201741.2.12018年531政策解读1.2中国光伏市场未来趋势201853153120181-515.17GW29.78%53120186-1229.09GW29.69%201844.26GW16.58%20185312013.08I0.9II0.98III10.422015.12I0.8II0.88III0.982016.12I0.65II0.75III0.8520182017.12I0.55II0.65III0.750.3720182018.05I0.5II0.6III0.70.3229.0941.377.9111.6915.1734.5453.0644.2647.75%53.62%55.36%29.78%-16.58%-29.69%26.632018201720166~121~51~516~1717~186~121~12GW531Wind2018531:12320181.2.2中国光伏发电市场未来走势1201723201952019走势一：短期内，整体光伏新增装机规模减少201753.06GW201844.26GW2018112020250GW2019202040GW20172018-20206.6%3.1%6.6%5%90%63.97%21.6%20.8%(2018-2020202010%GW17~20ECAGRWind25.5925.5944.2620.9623.3014.4114.41CAGR=-8.99%9.60%-24.61%CAGR=42.36%Wind20172017620192017IIIIIII20191走势二：分布式光伏成为新增装机贡献主力20182019-202029%70%202057%202040%201320172018E2020E202016.0%84.0%77.2%71.0%60.0%42.9%30.0%22.8%29.0%40.0%57.1%70.0%WIND72019IIIIII3225322018-20202020201812190.1/0.15/0.4/0.15/0.37/201765.99%47.59%20.73%走势三：光伏逐步进入无补贴时代，平价上网指日可待2013201853130-40%20191720182022III8201920222012201755%2018202320180.43/20230.32/0.36/202220180.31/0.015/III920191020192013-20171234123531531531111,295MW90201853120185319112.1中国光伏电站资产交易过往总结Mergermarket2015-2018201520162017201853120185318,9271,2959021,68578684MW1869350()(MW)2018-06-1225MW204252018-06-27100%270302018-06-27100%1852018-06-27100%100MV10381002018-07-0217100%106.3MW7031062018-07-03951%5394052018-07-13100%50MW370502018-08-14100%100%100%100%100%8502018-08-29100%20MW202018-08-2980%50MW502018-09-011428503.53MW493550411201620070.02GW8201510.85GW40MW201620162017201520168.6GW20177GW2016100MW2017250MW52.2日本光伏电站发展历程对于中国市场的启示0.79GW/Y8.62GW/YMergermarketEPIAand IEA-PVPS2019FITFeed-inTariffFIT201210kW40/2010kW42/10FIT3-4/2016~60%531FIT2012232013492014592017FIT2MWFIT10KW122019判断一：中国光伏市场将逐步从增量市场向交易市场发展，行业集中度和整合会进一步提升。30.28%51.36%40%53130%-40%2.3中国光伏电站资产交易未来趋势30.28%61.48%61.48%69.72%判断二：普通地面光伏电站趋于行业规模化整合，分布式光伏电站交易将呈现多样化发展3-4SPV发电企业管理中心国家部门公布补助名录省级部门1.5-2项目进度集中式电站13201940MW1,05021.68%1020%4(40,000)(20,233)(25,099)(22,514)69,3021,8131,358888392(130)(682)22,41922,43622,29522,15522,01521,87621,73721,60021,46321,3268,627(50,000)(30,000)(10,000)10,00030,00050,00070,0002015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036人民币千元由于国家补贴延时发放导致自由现金流为负国家补贴一次性发放融资期结束20%(40,000)(21,167)(26,620)(23,449)50,099(3,719)(4,461)(4,902)(5,369)(5,862)(6,386)16,74416,79016,67716,56416,45316,34116,23116,12116,01115,9026,762(50,000)(30,000)(10,000)10,00030,00050,00070,0002015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036人民币千元由于国家补贴延时发放导致自由现金流为负国家补贴一次性发放融资期结束142019500/+++20%1501+判断三：光伏项目融资方式将逐步成熟812152019162019136//52%/21%21%EPC5%3.1调查背景79%52%//52%21%8%5%4%4%4%2%/EPC//////QQ79%18%4%173.2光伏电站资产交易调查3.2.1光伏电站资产交易及未来趋势认知调查74%170GW10-20%50%17%10%~20%17~34GW63%79%Q170GW10%20%5%10%50%5%74%31%23%8%Q63%20%17%Q79%11%10%20191820193.2.2光伏电站资产交易偏好调查37%22%20%50%Q50%27%23%Q37%20%22%11%10%43%24%11%Q43%24%11%11%6%4%1952%45%29%Q52%27%14%7%Q45%29%19%7%201920201924%23%13%18%14%11%Q24%23%13%8%7%4%3%2%2%2%2%2%7%Q()18%14%11%10%8%8%5%3%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%9%213.2.4光伏电站资产交易尽职调查态度调研93%Q(3)98876964282Q5749474443373613.2.3光伏电站资产交易痛点调查Q93%3%2%2%201922201946%26%Q46%26%24%4%Q(4)7774716463585652381EPCQ10%-12%53%29%13%6%12%-14%14%10%3.2.5光伏电站资产交易决策影响因素调查53%10%-12%23Q?(3)10685746246442827Q151~54.14.14.04.04.03.7*Q151~53.83.83.73.73.73.6*201924201925风险识别：风险评估：风险管理：风险控制：4.2TÜV4.1TÜV2019TÜV262019设备组件逆变器基础和支架电气连接和汇流箱线缆接地气象站变压器储能系统生产制造计划和开发运输和安装运行和维护4.2光伏设备技术文件和数据的审核评估光伏设备一致性和安装质量检查光伏设备质量和性能的检测评估4.1.1光伏组件4.1光伏设备的典型技术风险PVInvestmentTechnicalRiskManagement,EuropeanUnion'sHorizon2020researchandinnovationprogramme27光伏组件技术文件和数据的审核评估----FlashData,EL光伏组件一致性和安装质量检查---光伏组件质量和性能的检测评估--TÜV4.4,4.520194.370605040302010070%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%200720082009201020112012201320142015201620182017TÜV/Wp/Wp/Wp设备组件生产制造PIDPIDEVA计划和开发运输和安装运行和维护4.4PVInvestmentTechnicalRiskManagement,EuropeanUnion'sHorizon2020researchandinnovationprogramme2820194.5140.00120.00100.0080.0060.0040.0020.000.009.008.007.006.005.004.003.002.001.000.00/(/kWp·yr)(/kWp·yr)PID光伏组件典型技术风险风险一组件及扩展原材料未经认证8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%4.6B1BUVTÜVIEC61215IEC61730IEC61215:2016Terrestrialphotovoltaic(PV)modules-DesignqualificationandtypeapprovalIEC61730:2016Photovoltaic(PV)modulesafetyqualification4.6TÜV2016201614124.18%59BPVInve