加拿大竞争报告(1)

CanadaCanada’sCompetitivenessintheGlobalEconomyIndustryIndustrieCanadaCanadaMEPA–APMEPresentationtothePublicPolicyForumPeterHarderDeputyMinisterIndustryCanadaJanuary17,2001CanadaisanactiveplayerintheglobaleconomyMEPA–APME2199019911992199319941995199619971998199950100150200250BillionsCanadianinwardFDIstockFDIfromU.STotalFDISource:StatisticsCanada1990199119921993199419951996199719981999100150200250300350400BillionsCanadianmerchandiseexportsExportstoU.S.TotalexportsSource:StatisticsCanada•Canadaistakingadvantageoftheincreasinglyglobaleconomy.•Exportshavegrownby145%overthe1990sandinwardFDIby83%.•Canada-U.S.linksaredeepandpervasive:-TRADE:overonemilliondollarsaminute,45%isintra-corporate,exportstoU.S.areabout40%ofbusiness-sectorGDP,-CAPITAL:about$300billionintwo-wayforeigndirectinvestment,dramaticgrowthinintegrationoffinancialmarkets,-PEOPLE:morethan200millionpeoplecrossthebordereveryyear,telecommunicationstrafficover6billionminutesannually,-OUTSIDEPERCEPTION:NorthAmericaviewedasonespace.MEPA–APME3ForCanada,globalizationlargelymeansincreasedlinkageswiththeU.S.ThishasboostedCanada’seconomicperformance...MEPA–APME43.8Canada•Between1997-99,Canada’seconomyoutperformedotherG-7countries.RealGDPgrowthinG-7countries*,1997-1999*Averageofyear-to-yearpercentagechangesinrealGDPSource:MainEconomicIndicators,OECD,April20000.7G-7Average2.62.51.71.30.0U.S.FranceU.K.GermanyItalyJapan4.2%peryear…butCanadastilllagstheU.S.•Overpasttwodecades,therealincomegapbetweenCanadaandU.S.haswidened:-riskthattrendcontinues,-largelyduetowideningproductivitygap.•NeedstrongerproductivityperformancetoboostCanadianstandardoflivingandbroadensocietalrangeofchoices.•Canada’sinnovationandinvestmentrecordlargelyexplainsthegapinproductivityperformancebetweenCanadaandtheU.S.RealincomeinCanada*9800Q3ProductivityinCanada**ProductivityismeasuredbyrealGDPperemployedcivilian;realincomeismeasuredbyrealGDPpercapita;Canadianvalueswereconvertedto1996US$using1996PPPs.Source:StatisticsCanadaandU.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysisTrendsinCanada-U.S.productivityandrealincome8082848688909294967580859095100U.S.=100MEPA–APME5InvestmentiskeyforimprovingCanada’sperformance...MEPA–APME6•Highlevelsofinvestmentgenerallytranslateintohighlevelsofproductivity.-Internationalevidencefrom114countriesdemonstratesthatthereisastrongpositivecorrelationbetweeninvestmentandlabourproductivity.•Newtechnologyislargelyembodiedinnewmachineryandequipment(M&E).-Thismakesnewcapitalmoreproductivethanoldercapital.-Alsorequireshigherskillsfromemployees.Investmentandproductivityinternationalevidence*Logofrealoutputperworker,1990.**Logofrealcapitalperworker,1990.Source:ComputedusingdatafromEasterly,W.andRossLevine,“It’snotfactoraccumulation:stylizedfactsandgrowthmodels”,Mimeo,WorldBankandUniversityofMinnesota,September1999.56789101112Investment**67891011Productivity*Correlationcoefficient:0.94Switzlnd.CanadaU.S.Luxemb.MadagascarChadMozambiqueMEPA–APME7Productivity*offoreign-controlledfirmsbysector,1993-95*Labourproductivity**IncludesTobacco;Furniture&fixtures;Printing&publishing;Leatherindustries;andOtherManufacturing.Source:Tang,J.andP.S.Rao,AreCanadian-controlledFirmsFallingBehindForeign-controlledFirmsintheCanadianManufacturingSector?,1999.020406080100120140Domestic-controlled=100TransportationequipmentRestofmanufacturing**FoodandbeveragesChemicalsStone,clayandglassTextilemillproductsPaperandalliedproductsElectricalmachineryPrimarymetalLumberandwoodTotalmanufacturing•InCanada,foreign-controlledfirmstendtobemoreproductivethandomestic-controlledfirms.-Foreign-controlledmanufacturingfirmsareonaverageabout13%moreproductivethanCanadian-controlledfirms,afteradjustingforindustrysize.-Itisprimarilyinresource-basedindustriesthatCanadian-controlledfirmsaremoreproductive.•Inthe1990s,FDIhasbeenanimportantcomponentofbusinessinvestmentinCanada.-Itaccountedforover12%ofbusinessinvestmentinthe1990s.…andFDImakesanimportantcontribution8MEPA–APME•CanadaisattractingasmallershareofNAFTA-boundFDI.•Between1988and1998,Canada'sshareofNorthAmerica'sinwardFDIdeclinedbyalmosthalf—from10%to6%.But,Canada’sshareofFDIisfallingsteadilyNorthAmericaninboundFDIstock**ExcludesintraNorthAmericanFDI.Source:IndustryCanadacompilationsbasedondatafromStatisticsCanada,BEA,OECDandU.N.,WorldInvestmentReport1988199019921994199619984681086878889909192PercentCanadashare(LHS)U.S.share(RHS)•CEOsofglobalfirmsplacemostconfidenceintheUnitedStatesasaforeigninvestmentdestination.•Mexicoranks7thwhileCanadais13th.TheU.S.isthedestinationofchoiceforFDIMEPA–APME9FDIconfidenceindex*,January20001.871.461.451.411.321.281.251.221.201.201.091UnitedStates2UnitedKingdom3China4Brazil5Poland6Germany7Mexico8Italy9Spain10Australia13Canada00.51.01.52.0*Theindexwascomputedasaweightedaverageofthenumberofhigh,medium,lowand“nointerest”responsetoaquestionaboutthelikelihoodofdirectinvestmentinmarketoverthenext1-3years.Source:A.T.Kearney,“FDIConfidenceIndex”January2000Low(CalculatedonHighconfidence0-3scale)confidence02040608064%56%30%PercentageofRespondentsU.S.MexicoCanadaSource:ATKea