事故树分析法在煤矿水灾安全评价中的应用

王厚军(国家安全生产监督管理总局通信信息中心,北京市东城区,100013)通过对煤矿水灾的事故树分析,得出了导致煤矿水灾的17个基本事件应用事故树分析中的最小割集最小径集和结构重要度,对煤矿水灾进行了研究结果表明,煤矿水灾不发生所必须的最低限度的基本事件集合,即最小径集有35个,其中,合理的防煤矿水灾设计和杜绝开采煤岩柱是预防煤矿水灾的最重要途径安全评价事故树分析煤矿水灾最小割集最小径集结构重要度TD7452AApplicationofFaultTreeAnalysisinsafetyassessmentofcoalminefloodsWangHoujun(CommunicationandInformationCenter,StateAdministrationofWorkSafety,Beijing100013,China)AbstractThroughtheFaultTreeAnalysisincollieryfloodshows17basiceventsleadingtocoalminefloods.FaultTreeAnalysisminimalcutsets,thepathsetandtheimportantdegreeofthestructureoncoalminefloodsareappliedinastudyofcoalminefloods.Theresultsshowthatthenonoccurrenceofcoalminefloodsrequirestheminimumof35setsofbasicevents,i.e.minimalpathsets,ofwhichrationaldesigntopreventfloodsincoalminesandprohibitedminingofcoalpillarsandrockpillarsarethemostimportantwaystopreventcoalminefloods.Keywordssafetyassessment;faulttreeanalysis;coalmineflood;minimalcutsets;minimalpathset;importantdegreeofthestructure,,,,1010%,,2010,2:31,328,,,,,,,,1(FTA)(FTA),(),,,,2T,,(Ai)3:115,(Xi),1,11T()A1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10X1X2X3X4X5X6X7X8X9X10X11X12X13X14X15X16X17331化简事故树,,,,32最小割集分析,,,,,,,,,11,:T=A1A2A3=(A4+A5+A6+A7)(A8+A9+X11)(X14+X15+X16+X17)=[X1(X2+X3)+X4(X2+X3)+X5(X2+X3)+X6X7X8](X9+X10+X11+X12+X13)(X14+X15+X16+X17)=(X1X2+X1X3+X2X4+X3X4+X2X5+X3X5+X6X7X8)(X9+X10+X11+X12+X13)(X14+X15+X16+X17)(Ei):E1={X1,X2,X9,X14}E2={X1,X2,X9,X15}E3={X1,X2,X9,X16}E4={X1,X2,X9,X17}E5={X1,X2,X10,X14}E6={X1,X2,X10,X15}E7={X1,X2,X10,X16}E8={X1,X2,X10,X17}E9={X1,X2,X11,X14}E10={X1,X2,X11,X15}E11={X1,X2,X11,X16}E12={X1,X2,X11,X17}E13={X1,X2,X12,X14}E14={X1,X2,X12,X15}E15={X1,X2,X12,X16}E16={X1,X2,X12,X17}E17={X1,X2,X13,X14}E18={X1,X2,X13,X15}E19={X1,X2,X13,X16}E20={X1,X2,X13,X17}11636720107E26={X1,X3,X10,X15}E27={X1,X3,X10,X16}E28={X1,X3,X10,X17}E39={X1,X3,X13,X16}E40={X1,X3,X13,X17}E41={X3,X4,X9,X14}E118={X6,X7,X8,X13,X15}E119={X6,X7,X8,X13,X16}E120={X6,X7,X8,X13,X17}120,22,,,12033最小径集分析3,,,,,,3:T=A1+A2+A3=(A4+A5+A6+A7)+(A8+A9+X11)+(X14+X15+X16+X17)=(X1X2+X1X3+X2X4+X3X4+X2X5+X3X5+X6X7X8)+(X9+X10+X11+X12+X13)+(X14+X15+X16+X17)=(X1X2)(X1X3)(X2X4)(X3X4)(X2X5)(X3X5)(X6X7X8)+(X9X10X11X12X13)+(X14X15X16X17)=(X1+X2)(X1+X3)(X2+X4)(X3+X4)(X2+X5)(X3+X5)(X6+X7+X8)+(X9X10X11X12X13)+(X14X15X16X17)=X2X3X6+X2X3X7+X2X3X8+X1X2X3X6+X1X2X3X7+X1X2X3X8+X1X4X5X6+X1X4X5X7+X1X4X5X8+X2X3X5X6++X1X2X3X4X5X8+X9X10X11X12X13+X14X15X16X17:P1={X2,X3,X6}P2={X2,X3,X7}P3={X2,X3,X8}P4={X1,X2,X3,X6}P5={X1,X2,X3,X7}P6={X1,X2,X3,X8}P7={X1,X4,X5,X6}P8={X1,X4,X5,X7}P9={X1,X4,X5,X8}P10={X2,X3,X5,X6}P11={X2,X3,X5,X7}P12={X2,X3,X5,X8}P31={X1,X2,X3,X4,X5,X6}P32={X1,X2,X3,X4,X5,X7}P33={X1,X2,X3,X4,X5,X8}P34={X9,X10,X11,X12,X13}P35={X14,X15,X16,X17}4434结构重要度分析117,,,:I(2)=I(3)I(6)=I(7)=I(8)I(1)=I(4)=I(5)I(14)=I(15)=I(16)=I(17)I(9)=I(10)=I(11)=I(12)=I(13)4,:(1),120,,,Ei,,(2),35,,,(3),X2,X3,,,,:[1],,,[J],2005(7)[2],[M]:,20104[3]()[M]:,2005[4],,[M],:,2008(6)[5][J],2003(4)[6],[M]:,1996:(1975-),,,,,,(责任编辑梁子荣)(上接第108页)2(3)r3,,,,,,;,,,:[1][M]:,1992[2][M]:,1998[3][M]:,2005[4][M]:,2001:(1965-),,,19877,,(责任编辑梁子荣)11836720107