壳牌能源远景2050年

2050182669_Energy_CHI.indd182669_Energy_CHI.indd129-07-200817:05:0029-07-200817:05:0082669_Energy_CHI.indd282669_Energy_CHI.indd229-07-200817:05:0129-07-200817:05:012050182669_Energy_CHI.inddSec1:182669_Energy_CHI.inddSec1:129-07-200817:05:0129-07-200817:05:01:282669_Energy_CHI.inddSec1:229-07-200817:05:0129-07-200817:05:01?46440324(Blueprints)212(Scramble)18382669_Energy_CHI.inddSec1:382669_Energy_CHI.inddSec1:329-07-200817:05:0129-07-200817:05:01R482669_Energy_CHI.indd482669_Energy_CHI.indd429-07-200817:05:0229-07-200817:05:02SECURITYCARBONENERGYENSSSORESOURCESCESTECHNOLOGY82669_Energy_CHI.indd582669_Energy_CHI.indd529-07-200817:05:0229-07-200817:05:022090TINAThereIsNoAlternative90TINA20059/11TINATINATANIAThereAreNoIdealAnswers?682669_Energy_CHI.indd682669_Energy_CHI.indd629-07-200817:05:0229-07-200817:05:0250JeremyB.BenthamThereAreNoIdealAnswers782669_Energy_CHI.indd782669_Energy_CHI.indd729-07-200817:05:0229-07-200817:05:0211:20152:3:882669_Energy_CHI.indd882669_Energy_CHI.indd829-07-200817:05:0329-07-200817:05:0310100200300400010203040GDPpercapita(PPP,'0002000USD)USAEuropeEU15JapanSouthKoreaChinaIndiaGJpercapita(primaryenergy)1950205040%1970-200519501975200020252050Year1billionpeopleOECDNonOECD144451950197520002025205010154003002001000403020100GDPPPP’0002000982669_Energy_CHI.indd982669_Energy_CHI.indd929-07-200817:05:0329-07-200817:05:03101082669_Energy_CHI.indd1082669_Energy_CHI.indd1029-07-200817:05:0429-07-200817:05:04SCRAMBLEBLUEPRINTS82669_Energy_CHI.indd1182669_Energy_CHI.indd1129-07-200817:05:0429-07-200817:05:0482669_Energy_CHI.indd1282669_Energy_CHI.indd1229-07-200817:05:0529-07-200817:05:05550ppmv21382669_Energy_CHI.indd1382669_Energy_CHI.indd1329-07-200817:05:0529-07-200817:05:0520042.11482669_Energy_CHI.indd1482669_Energy_CHI.indd1429-07-200817:05:0529-07-200817:05:05251582669_Energy_CHI.indd1582669_Energy_CHI.indd1529-07-200817:05:0529-07-200817:05:052.22000202520502.51682669_Energy_CHI.indd1682669_Energy_CHI.indd1629-07-200817:05:0529-07-200817:05:05py600400200020502040203020202010200020502040203020202010200010008006004002000(EJ)1782669_Energy_CHI.indd1782669_Energy_CHI.indd1729-07-200817:05:0629-07-200817:05:062.320201882669_Energy_CHI.indd1882669_Energy_CHI.indd1829-07-200817:05:0629-07-200817:05:06050100150200200020252050EJperyearElectricityBiofuelsGaseoushydrocarbonfuelsLiquidfuelsfossil-derived205015%202010050020102000203020402050EJperyear2001501005002000202520501982669_Energy_CHI.indd1982669_Energy_CHI.indd1929-07-200817:05:0729-07-200817:05:072.4201020202082669_Energy_CHI.indd2082669_Energy_CHI.indd2029-07-200817:05:0729-07-200817:05:072.52182669_Energy_CHI.indd2182669_Energy_CHI.indd2129-07-200817:05:0829-07-200817:05:082.62030201520502282669_Energy_CHI.indd2282669_Energy_CHI.indd2229-07-200817:05:0829-07-200817:05:080510150123456789Population(billion)tonneCO2percapitaperyearRussiaNorthAmericaAsia&Oceania-DevelopedChinaEuropeMiddleEast&NAfricaIndiaLatinAmericaAsia&Oceania-DevelopingSub-SaharanAfrica2035203530%(CO2)280ppmv380ppmv01234567891510502382669_Energy_CHI.indd2382669_Energy_CHI.indd2329-07-200817:05:0829-07-200817:05:0882669_Energy_CHI.indd2482669_Energy_CHI.indd2429-07-200817:05:0929-07-200817:05:0932582669_Energy_CHI.indd2582669_Energy_CHI.indd2529-07-200817:05:0929-07-200817:05:093.1212682669_Energy_CHI.indd2682669_Energy_CHI.indd2629-07-200817:05:0929-07-200817:05:0920122782669_Energy_CHI.indd2782669_Energy_CHI.indd2729-07-200817:05:0929-07-200817:05:093.220202007201220202882669_Energy_CHI.indd2882669_Energy_CHI.indd2829-07-200817:05:1029-07-200817:05:10USAChinaJapanRussiaIndiaEuropeEU15010020030040004080120GDPpercapita(PPP,'0002000USD)GJpercapita(primaryenergy)2050400300200100004080120GDP(PPP,‘0002000)152982669_Energy_CHI.indd2982669_Energy_CHI.indd2929-07-200817:05:1029-07-200817:05:103.33082669_Energy_CHI.indd3082669_Energy_CHI.indd3029-07-200817:05:1129-07-200817:05:11050100150200250300350200020252050ElectrictransportLiquidfuelsPassengerdistancetravelled(world),index2000=1003503002502001501005002050202520002000=1003182669_Energy_CHI.indd3182669_Energy_CHI.indd3129-07-200817:05:1129-07-200817:05:113.4205090%50%205015-20%C403282669_Energy_CHI.indd3282669_Energy_CHI.indd3229-07-200817:05:1129-07-200817:05:11050100150200200020102020203020402050EJperyearOtherRenewablesWindSolarBiomass+WasteHydroelectricityNuclearCoalGasOil(CCS)CCSCCSCCS2020CCS602050CCS205060%+2001501005002000201020202030204020503382669_Energy_CHI.indd3382669_Energy_CHI.indd3329-07-200817:05:1129-07-200817:05:11CCS3482669_Energy_CHI.indd3482669_Energy_CHI.indd3429-07-200817:05:1229-07-200817:05:120200400600200020252050Non-energyUseResidentialTransportServicesAgriculture&OtherIndustryHeavyindustryEJperyear02004006008001000200020102020203020402050EJperyearOtherRenewablesBiomassNuclearCoalGasOil6004002000200020252050100080060040020002000201020202030204020503582669_Energy_CHI.indd3582669_Energy_CHI.indd3529-07-200817:05:1229-07-200817:05:123.5