产业调整路径_幅度与能源消耗

:2010-01-17:,,*(:20090460384)产业调整路径幅度与能源消耗*于珍李保明施祖麟(,100084),,,,,;,,,,;;;F062.4A1002-2104(2010)06-0092-06doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2010.06.016,2003,,50%35%20%,4%GDP11.5,7.7,4.3[1],,,,,,,,,,,,,1产业结构变化与能源消耗关系,,,,,,,,,,,,,200416.1%,200510.6%,20069.6%,20077.8%,GDP200410.1%,200510.4%,200611.6%,200711.9%[2]XiaoluWangLianMeng[3],ThomsG.Rawski[4]1997-2000GDP24.7%,12.8%,,[5],,,GDP,GDP,[6]1980-2003,922010206CHINAPOPULATION,RESOURCESANDENVIRONMENTVol.20No.62010,[7],;,;,()[8],,,,[9],,,,,,[10],,[11],,[12]1983-2005,,,[13]20,,,,[14],,[15],2000,,,,,??,?,29,,,1995-2007,2数据与研究方法(2000-2008)!(1996-2008)!,SPSS(15.0)292.1研究指标与方法(1),,=/,!,(2),t,,,,,,(3),,,,,,,,ii,Eii,Oiii=(Eit-Ei0)Ei0Oi0(Oit-Oi0),1=2=...=i(i=1,2,...,n)(4),,,93:,,,,Vii,Y=∀ni=1Vi,Xiipii,pixii,ii,Vi=PiXi+i(Y-∀nk=1PkXk)(1)i=PiXi-∀nk=1PkXk(2)(1)Vi=i+iY(3)i,i(2)i∀ni=1i=∀ni=1pixi-∀ni=1i∀nk=1pkxk(4)∀ni=1pixi=∀nk=1pkxk(5)∀ni=1i=∀ni=1piXi(1-∀ni=1i)(6)∀ni=1pixi=∀ni=1i1-∀ni=1i(7)(7)(2),PiXi=i+i∀ni=1i1-∀ni=1i(8),Vi=i+iY,,Vi=i+iY2,Y=Y2,,3研究结果3.1制造业分产业能源消耗比重,,,2007,30.58%,17.44%,13.03%,8.43%,6.84%,76.32%2000-2007,25%,,,,,(1)12000-2007Fig.1Proportionofenergyconsumptionofdifferentsectorsinmanufacturingindustryfrom2000to2007,2000-20074,2000-20074,()2000-200716,3.2制造业各分产业单位能耗产值2000-2007t,(/t)4,15,10-15,5-10,5,155,10-154,94201065-106,513,,,5/t,200719.54/t,0.71/t,222000-2007Fig.2Differentconsumptionofenergyperoutputofdifferentsectorsinmanufacturingindustryfrom2000to20073.3制造业各分产业边际能耗产出,,,,20075,,,0-5(3),,,,,32007Fig.3Changesofenergyconsumptionelasticitesofdifferentsectorsinmanufacturingindustryin20073.4制造业各产业最基本能源消耗量,,,,,,,,3197.410t,0.153,,1t,0.153t,,,,14316.268t,3197.41t22.33%,100t,22.33t,16223.570t,10157.35t7.1%,100t,7.1t,,4结论(1)95:,2007,30.58%,,20070.71/t,0.78/t,(2)200715/t,,1Tab.1CoefficientoflinearmodelofenergyconsumptionofdifferentsectorsinmanufacturingindustryIndustryPiXiiR^2D.WF3197.40.1530.91.2101.52634.60.1210.91.0150.11706.2-0.0020.10.96.61189.70.0070.60.617.31127.80.0010.12.81.3724.10.0040.50.711.6618.90.0040.60.813.8591.30.0020.30.65.0587.00.0110.91.8150.0520.40.020.91.2165.0313.50.0071.00.378.6310.3-0.0010.32.84.3291.90.0140.90.469.2219.00.0870.81.339.371.80.0010.21.43.469.80.0020.61.313.951.30.0081.02.4662.140.90.0010.71.730.139.70.0020.81.553.010.70.0010.70.822.814316.30.4432Tab.2CoefficientofquadraticcurvemodelofenergyconsumptionofdifferentsectorsinmanufacturingindustryIndustryPiXiiR^2D.WF10157.41.5E-061.02.2313.32078.61.7E-071.01.7353.51885.73.3E-070.91.0118.2705.88.9E-080.91.1145.1403.64.6E-081.01.7245.9356.55.6E-081.01.4196.7230.41.8E-080.91.5176.2205.37.4E-080.90.777.0200.32.7E-081.02.4298.316223.62.3E-06(3)2007,,,,,(4),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(编辑:刘呈庆)9620106(References)[1].[M].:,2006:15-18[ZhaoXuegong.InternationalTrendofCircularEconomyandChinaPractices[M].Beijing:PeoplesPress,2006,(7):15-18.][2].2008(6-8)[DB/OL].[2009-12-15].[NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina.ChinaStatisticalearbook2008(6-8Energyconsumptionelasticitycoefficient)[DB/OL].[2009-12-15.][3]WangXiaolu,MengLian.AReevaluationofChinasEconomicGrowth.[J].ChinaEconomicReview,2001,12(4):338-346.[4]ThomasGRawshi.WhatsHappeningtoChinasGDPStatistics?ChinaEconomicReview[J].2001,12(4):347-354.[5],.[J].,2004,(5):499-501.[Xubo,LiuFang.TheImpactofChangesinIndustrialStructuretoEnergyConsumption[J].JournalofLiaoningTechnicalUniversity,2004,(5):499-501.][6],.[J].,2006,(4):68-74.[ZhouYong,LILianshui.StructureandEfficiencyofFactorsContributiontoChinasEnergyIntensityChanges[J].IndustrialEconomicResearch,2006,(4):68-74.][7],.[J].,2006,(12):8-10.[ZhangRui,DingRijia.CointegrationAnalysisonChinasEnergyEfficiencyandEnergyConsumptionStructure[J].CoalEconomyResearch,2006,(12):8-10.][8],.[J].,2008,(11):159-164.[Zhoumi,Liuwei,StudyonCorrelationofChinasEnergyIndustriesandIndustrialStructure[J].ReformandStrategy,2008,(11):159-164.][9],.[J].,2009,(2):128-131.[YanXiaofei,DuXiufang.EmpiricalResearchonChinasEnergyConsumptionandIndustrialStructure[J].ReformandStrategy,2009,(2):128-131.][10].[J].,2006,(5):33-34[LiuManPing.CoordinatedDevelopmentonChinasIndustrialStructureChanges,EnergySupplyandConsumption[J].ChineseTradeTribune,2006,(5):33-34.][11].[J].,2006,(7):25-29.[Heyan.TheNonequilibriumAnalysisonChinasEnergyConsumption[J].ChinaEnergy,2006,(7):25-29.][12],.[J].:),2006,(3):5-9.[ShaoRenli,JiaMingde.AnalysisontheRelationshipBetweenChinasSustainableEconomicDevelopmentandEnergyConsumption[J].JournalofXianShiyouUniversity:SocialScienceEdition),2006,(3):5-9.][13],.:[J].,2006,(3):109-112.[ZengBo,SuXiaoyan.TheImpactofChinasIndustrialStructuretoEnergyConsumption:BasedonGrayRelationalTheoryandPanelDataEconometricAnalysis[J].ResourceandIndustry,2006,(3):109-112.][14],,.[J].:),2009,(1):145-148.[LiMingyu,LiKai,YuPeili,etal.AnEmpiricalStudyforIndustrialStructureinLiaoningProvinceinthePerspectiveofEnergySaving[J].JournalofNortheasternUniversity:NaturalScience),2009,(1):145-148.][15],,.:[J].,2009,(6):818-822.[ZhangYixiang,LiuJie,ChenJinhua.ChangingTrend