我国物流保险探讨

上海交通大学硕士学位论文我国物流保险探讨姓名：潘斌申请学位级别：硕士专业：物流工程指导教师：赵一飞;李学锋200810011525ABSTRACTModernLogisticsBusinessisarevolutionarybreaking,comparedtothetraditionaltransportway.Theriskisalsoincreasingbecauseofthecharactersandthedemandsofmodernlogisticsbusiness.InordertoguaranteetheprogressofthesocializationandglobalizationofthelogisticsinChina,modernlogisticsmanagementshouldnotonlyberesponsibleforthearrangementoftheconcreteoperationprogresses,butalsotherisk.Thenwecandisperseriskandgetridofit,inordertoreducelost.Insuranceisaneffectivewayofoperatingriskmanagement.Consideringthatlogisticsindustryurgentlyneedsthesupportofinsuranceindustry,pushoutlogisticsinsuranceisawin-winmeasure.Integratedlogisticsinsuranceistheidealinsurancetypewhichcanmeetthedemandsofthedevelopmentofmodernlogistics.InEuropeanandAmericancountries,logisticshaswelldevelopedandaccepted.Butitisdifferentinchina.Forsomereasons,tooperatingintegratedlogisticsinsurancestillhasalotofproblems.Forinsurancecompanies,itisthemostimportantpointtocontroltheriskoflogisticsbusiness.Toreducetheriskinlogisticsoperation,buildariskassessmentsystemisobviouslyaneffectiveway.Basedontheanalysisoflogisticsrisk,thispaperpresentstheestablishmentofriskassessmentsysteminlogisticsinsuranceaswellastheestablishmentofnumericalmodel.MeanwhileconsideringtotheproblemsoflogisticsinsuranceinChina,theriskassessmentsystemoflogisticsinsurancehassignificantmeaning.Finallysomesuggestionsforthedevelopmentoflogisticsinsuranceareputforwardfromthreeaspects.Keywords:logisticsinsurance,risk,riskassessment,clusteringanalysis1651.1WTO2723721.24725722.12.1.120802.1.2[1]672JIT2.22.2.11.7722.JIT3.1.5001002.8721.2.3.9722.2.21.25%2.10723.4.11722.2.3[5]12722.3[5]137214722.42.4.1WTO1572[16]3[17]199816722.4.2[18][18]177218723.13.1.1[7][8]19723.1.1.1[9][10]ABC19905120721980[11][9]1982[13]InstituteCargoClauseairexcludingsendingbypost2172InstituteWarClauseaircargoexcludingsendingbypostInstituteStrikeClauseaircargo3.1.1.2[12]PICC2272[14]3.1.223723.23.2.119982472[30]3.2.23.2.2.12572[5]3.2.2.2199820028122672[5]2005200641651.7[15]3.32772[18][19]28725RRighttimeRightplaceRightqualityRightquantityRightprice2972[1][1]3072[1]31724.14.1.14.1.24.1.3()32724.24.2.1[20]4.2.23372{}12nXxxx=,,...,()12kxkn=,,...,(){}12kkkksPxxxx=,,...,()12kjxjs,,...,=Xkx()kPxkxX4.3[20]kxkxjn347212nxxx,,...,12cXXX,,...,12cijXXXXXX==∅...,∪∪∪∩1ijc≤≠≤()1kxkn≤≤()1iXic≤≤()10ikiXkikkixXxxXµµ∈==∉ikhEµ∈{}110110cnhikikikikikEkniµµµµ===∈=∀∀∑∑|,;,;,X12cXXX,,...,[]01,[]110110cnfikikikikikEkniµµµµ===∈=∀∀∑∑|,;,;,()1ciisuppXX==∪5.15.2(HardPartitionCrispPartition)5.3(FussyPartition)c015.3supp4.4HierarchicalClusteringMethod357212nxxx,,...,ijdxx(,)ijxx,10023ijijijijjiijikkjdxxdxxxxdxxdxxdxxdxxdxx≥=⇔==≤+)(,),(,);)(,)(,);)(,)(,)(,).1221pijikjkkdxxxx==−∑(,)()4.4.11np[21]4.4.25.435.5p3672cαβxxαβ,1112103cccxcxcccαβαααβαβαββα≤==±⇔=≠=)||;)();)cαβxxαβ,xxαβ,12211niiinniiiixxxxsrssxxxxααββαβαβααββααββ===−−==−−∑∑∑()()()()rαβxxαβ,12Tnxxxααα(,,...,)12Tnxxxβββ(,,...,)12Tnxxxααα(,,...,)12Tnxxxβββ(,,...,)12211niiinniiiixxcxxαβαβαβ====∑∑∑ijxx,ijdijdxx(,)pGqGpnqnpG12pnxxx,,...,11pnpiipxxn==∑5.615.7xxαβ,5.8RRC4.4.3ijij5.93772pGpGqGpqD2pqTpqpqpqpqnnDxxxxnn=−−+()()rGpGqGrGrpqnnn=+pGqG()kGkpq≠,rG()kGkpq≠,2222pkqkkrkpkqkpqrkrkrknnnnnDDDDnnnnnn++=+−+++()()()00012nXXX,,...,()0D()121212012000nnnnddddDdd=.........pqpqDd=()00b=()0DpqDWard5.104.4.4Ward5.114.4.5Xnncnnnn5.123872{}ppGx={}qqGx=pGqG{}rpqGGG=,()0DpGqGrG()1bD+1bb=+()bDkxjx'bbn-1DDbn39725.15.1.1RiskManagement5.1.2[22]407241725.25.2.1[27]5.2.1.1WTO[23]5.2.1.24272[24]5.2.1.3[21]4372[22],,,,,,5.2.25.2.2.110%10%A9.99%BAB4472[22]5.2.2.2[23]///45725.2.2.34672[23]5.395200711%%138.95112.90263.60102.46393.33110.38428.9493.1853.73133.33635.91108.88724.41105.1612477212345671024.650054.380010.010035.22003.040014.5400224.6500029.730034.660059.870027.690039.1900354.380029.7300064.390089.600057.420068.9200410.010034.660064.3900025.21006.97004.5300535.220059.870089.600025.2100032.180020.680063.040027.690057.42006.970032.1800011.5000714.540039.190068.92004.530020.680011.50000312631211.00006.00003.040024.00007.00004.530038.00009.000015.209942.00003.000029.730055.000010.000035.8254611.000012.000088.0262113124872420074%1282213454544357161044549725512345610717154376270242250833172402265941522202861543502628033676835961330661213.00004.00002.000021.00002.00007.000037.00008.000027.577245.00006.000033.000059.000010.000086.956950722Fig.2Icicle251726.11.5272/2.3.4.53721.2.54723.4.5.6.7.8.3-855729.10.56726.2()57721.2.3.4.1.2.3.4.6.31.5872**************2.5972*********3.60724.******5.6.61721.2.3.627263727.1:64727.27.2.17.2.1.1[25]7.2.1.26572[18]6672[26]7.2.27.2.2.16772[27]7.2.2.2[25]7.2.36872[28]6972[1].[J].,2005,(8):105-106.[2].[J].,2007,(7):78-79.[3].[J].,2003,(4):31-32.[4],.[J].,2006,(29):1-4.[5],,.[M].,2006.[6],.[J].,2007,(2):30-31.[7].[J].,2006,(6):98-99.[8].[M].2003.[9].[M].2001.[10].[M].,1998.[11].[M].,2007.[12].[J]..2007,(11):297-298.[13].[M].,1996.[14],.[M].,2002.[15].[J].,2006,(12):33-34.[16].:[J].7072,2005,(9).[17]..[J]200413.[