外资银行进入对我国银行业的影响及对策研究

南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文外资银行进入对我国银行业的影响及对策研究姓名：杨慧兰申请学位级别：硕士专业：产业经济学指导教师：徐强20080301iROEROA,,,,iiAbstractInconsiderationofmarketopportunities,capitalcostandhostcountry’scontroloneconomics,amassofforeignbankshavebeenestablishedindevelopedcitiesinChina.Amongthem,banksfromJapanandHongKongareofgreaterportion.AlthoughforeignbanksareasmallpartofChina’sbankingmarket,itsrapiddevelopmentisamazing.Usingpaneldatafrom1997-2005of14commercialbanksoperatinginChina,thepaperappliesmultiplelinearregressionmethodtotestwhetherforeignbanks’entryaffectsdomesticbanksontheirperformance.Theresulttellsusthatforeignbanksentryhavehadeffectsondomesticbanks,includingprofit,cost,liquiditybutexceptinterestearningsandrisk-control.WiththefullopennessofChina’sfinancialsystem,foreignbankswillcontinueitsconcentrationstrategy,establishinginstitutionsindevelopedcities.Theywilldeveloptheircompetitivebusinessandbecomeashareholderindomesticbanks.Anempiricalanalysisisemployedtoindicatetheimpactofforeignownershipondomesticbanks’performance.WefindthatifperformanceismeasuredbyROE,theimpactisnotobvious.Otherwise,ifperformanceismeasuredbyROA,theimpactisclearer.Generally,foreignownershipimprovescapitalofdomesticbanks,andmakesownershipmultiple,butitcouldn’tmakedomesticbanks’performancebetter.Therefore,thispaperputforwardssomerelativestrategies.Ononehand,domesticbanksshouldimprovetheircompetitivepowerbyoptimizingownershipstructure,keepingawaybaddebits,cultivatingtalentedpeople.Ontheotherhand,foreignbanksshouldbeencouragedtoenterintoChina’sbankingmarket.Thegovernmentshouldtakeefficientsupervisiononthem.Keywords:foreignbank,foreignbankentry,bankingindustry,efficiency,impact,strategyv1.1.....................51.2.....................61.3.....................61.4.............................61.5.......................................73.1..............233.2..............243.3..............253.4................263.5................273.6................274.1%.........................434.2%.........................431.1.....................................71.2.........................................83.12001-2005%..........233.22001-2005%..........243.32001-2005%..........253.4%.............263.5..................................................303.6ROA..................................................313.7OE...................................................313.8NIOA.................................................323.9IOA..................................................323.10LB...................................................323.11QOC..................................................32vi4.12002-2004%............364.22004.........................384.319952006...................404.4......................424.5ROA............................444.6ROE............................44,150701980199752001211997200623STATAHausman2006312ROAROE411WTO200611150%50%2006121111WTO[1]1979198119821984198519962006118155200612115919982001121120061211920077227113219884620078202002200619.7%2002200636.87%2002200625%1.11.21.30200040006000800010000199619971998199920002001200220032004200520061.120075989620011.62407720017.4346.95%581920010.7712.63%,.[J]..2007(14):444660500100015002000250030003500199619971998199920002001200220032004200520061.20100020003000400050006000199619971998199920002001200220032004200520061.320075305020014.27514320012.392007530.542.72%2001-200628.59%20070.7%0.182002-20065.731.41.50123456200020012002200320042005200620071.470.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%200020012002200320042005200620071.5112(1)80%1.120051.119941996199820002002200420053337454540485524242425202022109101099912131515151618912131414151481010108884333344433334443321113112234333334511112339161819242512222211111111112511123111241111121211513115315814617119281.11994819961998200010200220042005819942005111999199880%2007598.36%96.81%21.21.219971998199920002001200220032004200526273638383638385029332828272026282191111111211111213998999910185555555561111111111116171717171616171411121313131313141558887777991.215188777771213334555522222222311111111211111111157777467511111115544444442222222221421611551581591461561631831998-2006200560.11%28.42%10.38%1.09%32007554.2%50.4%63.7%43.9%32.1%33.5%60%43.6%[2]2006122070OwnershipadvantagesInternationaladvantagesLocationaladvantages10OLI12190122GDPGDPGDP19932004GDP14.1%13.1%10.9%10.0%9.3%7.8%7.6%8.4%8.3%9.1%10.0%10.1%200520069.9%10.7%GDP15%1115%33%2420061211123FDI200004FDI10.79%19.62%39.03%33.38%OLI1213RepresentativeOfficeAgencyJointVentureGreen-FieldInvestmentAffiliate200210200375.1%24.9%BranchSubsidiary131421211[3]GoldbergKinney2000[4]152006[5]Stiglitz,1993[6]2122006[7]Levine1996[8]2006[5]2006[9]Stiglitz,1993[6]2132006[5]2001[10]2003[11]162142004[12]2006[13]2003[14]2152006[15]2006[16]2006[13][17]200522221StijinClaessens,AsltDemirgǔc-Knt,Harry17Hizinga(2001)[18]1988199580ClaessensRobertLensinkNielsHermes2004[19]ClaessensStijinClaessens,AsltDemirgǔc-Knt,HarryHizinga(2001)MariaSoledadMartinezPeriaAshokaMody2004[20]90OlenaHavrylchyk2006[21]1997-200152.92%73.23%HidenobOkdaSvadeeRngsom