贸易战

贸易战？PostedonOctober2,2009byDr.ElliotJ.FeldmanEmailThisPrintCommentsTrackbacksShareLinkPresidentObama,onSeptember11,announcedthattheUnitedStateswouldrestrictimportsofChinesecommercial,low-costtires.Thisactionwasforeseeableandforeseen(forexamplethisblogforesawthisactioninarticlestitledAttackOnChinaRollsOnNewTiresandConsultationsToSettleTheTiresDispute:TooLittleTooLate?).PresidentObamacommittedtoadditionaltariffsof35-30-25percentsteppeddownoverthreeyears;theUnitedStatesInternationalTradeCommissionhadrecommended55-45-35percentoverthreeyears.ManyanalystscalledtheITC’srecommendationprohibitive;theObamarates,accordingtoUnitedStatesTradeRepresentativeRonKirk,werederivedfromaneconomicmodeldesignedtoreducebutnotprohibitChinesetiresintheU.S.market.ThevictoriousUnitedSteelworkerspredictedgettingtheirlostjobsback;mostanalystspredictedthatexportsfromothercountries,notdomesticproduction,wouldfillinthemissingChinesetires.Withintwenty-fourhours,ChinaannouncedtraderemedyinvestigationsintochickenandautomobilepartsfromtheUnitedStates.Observerswerequicktolabeltheannouncementas“retaliation”(InsideU.S.Tradeheadline:CHINARESPONDSTOTIRESSAFEGUARDWITHNEWADINVESTIGATIONS),whichChinadenied.ChinaannouncedaWTOappealofanadversedecisiononthesaleanddistributionofvisualworksandmusicdownloadservicesalmostsimultaneously,andaWTOchallengetothetiressafeguarddecisionwithindays.Direpredictions,andaccusationsdirectedatPresidentObama,followedquickly.PresidentObamawasaccusedofbreakingthewordhegave,andtheundertakingofworldleadersthathehadsolicited,atthelastmeetingoftheG-20,toavoidanyactsoftradeprotectionisminthemidstofaglobalrecession.Hewasaccusedofinconsideratetiming,makinghisannouncementon9/11,adaythatironicallyhadbroughttheworldtogether,andlessthantwoweeksbeforethenextG-20inPittsburgh,wherehewouldbethehost.Chinacomplained,expressly,thatPresidentObamaseemedpreparedtotradeoff5000Americanjobsfor100,000Chinese,seekingasuperiormoralground.TradeanalystsrushedtopredictawaveofsafeguardactionsagainstChineseproducts.Afterall,ifanapparentlyweakclaimcouldsucceedwiththeObamaAdministration,surelystrongerclaimscouldprevail,andthestandardsforreliefbasedonasafeguardactionaremuchlowerthanfordumpingandcountervailingdutypetitions.ThesafeguardactiondidnotrequireanyChineseviolationsofanytraderules,andtherewerenoformalallegationsofdumpingorsubsidiesinthetirescase.Hadtherebeenany,thelawrequiredthemtobedisregardedinthedecisionprocess.Nonetheless,UnitedSteelworkersPresidentLeoGerardengagedinvitriolicdenunciationsofChinesetradepracticesbefore,during,andafterthePresident’sdecision.Hequicklyseizedleadershipinnewpetitionsthatdidcontainsuchallegations.TheObamaAdministrationsaidnothingpubliclytorecognizethedifferencebetweenthedecisionontiresandfindingsofsubsidiesordumping,therebypossiblyreinforcinganapparentChineseimpressionthattheproceedingswereunfairandill-timedforglobaleconomicrecovery.Gerard’sstatements(andsimilarstatementsfromaUnionwitness,theAllianceofAmericanManufacturing,attheTradePolicyCommitteehearing),seemintended,intheirdisregardforthelawandintheirtone,todamageChinese-U.S.relations.Astheywere,inthetirescase,outsidethelaw,theObamaAdministrationmayneedtobesensitivetoanovertlywarmembraceoftheunions.DidPresidentObamastartatradewar?IsChinaretaliating?WilltheG-20countriesconcludethattheU.S.isnotcommittedtofreetrade,andwilltheyreactbyseekingtoprotecttheirowndomesticmarkets?Willthistradetriggerreversethepromisingsignsofglobalrecoveryfromtheworstrecessionsincethe1930s?Therearenosimpleanswerstothesedisturbingquestions,butitispossibletoaddresssomeofthemwithouthysteria.Thereisheremuchmorethanmayseemapparent,andalsoabitless.TheDecisionOnTiresAlltradedisputesbeginwithdomesticpolitics.ThetiresdisputebeganwithCandidateObama’spromisestogivemeaningtothespecialChinasafeguardandtoinsistuponChineseadherencetotradelawsandagreements,andthecriticalsupporthereceivedfromthetradeunionsinhisrunforthepresidency.Itwassustainedbyacontinuinganti-ChinesesentimentinCongress,wherevariousbillsallegingcurrencymanipulationandotherunfairtradesinsareintroducedalmostroutinely.AnditwasadvancedbytheanalyticalconclusionoffourofthesixCommissionersoftheInternationalTradeCommission,ledbyaChairwomanpreviouslyonthestaffoftheDemocraticChairmanoftheSenateFinanceCommittee,whofoundthatanincreaseinChinesetireimportshaddisruptedtheU.S.marketandinjuredtheU.S.industry.TheDemocraticChairmanoftheSenateFinanceCommittee,coincidentallybutinstrumentally,isessentialtothePresidentinhiseffortstoreformhealthcare,hishighestpriority.ThePresident’srationaleisuncomplicated.Chinaagreedtothespecialsafeguard.Itsrequirementsweremet,atleastinsofarasthecasewaspresentedtotheInternationalTradeCommission,theUnitedStatesTradeRepresentative,andtheTradePolicyCommittee.Therefore,itwasrightandreasonabletoapplythelaw.Thereisperhapsanotherexplanation.Thegatheredpoliticalforcesmadeapresidentialrefusaltoactinthetirescaseimpossible.ThetradeunionsandtheDemocraticCongresswouldhaveaccusedPresidentObamaofrepresentingcontinuitywiththeBushAdministration,not