资产质量良好长期推荐

资产质量良好长期推荐—招商银行10年中报点评公司研究/更新报告金融、保险业/银行业2010-08-18谨请参阅尾页重要申明及华泰联合证券股票和行业评级标准招商银行(600036)买入/维持评级股价：RMB13.88分析师吴松凯SAC执业证书编号:[e-mail]联系人戴志锋[e-mail]基础数据总股本（百万股）21577流通A股（百万股）17666流通B股（百万股）0.00可转债（百万元）N/A流通A股市值（百万元）245206相关研究z净利息收入增加和净息差上升略超同行业。招行2季度净利息收入环比增加10.5%；2季度单季息差为2.53%，环比上升13个BP，好于已公布的股份制银行。优于同行业的原因有：1）储蓄存款重定价效应在2季度持续，其负债付息率环比下降；2）票据业务继续压缩，票据收益率环比上升；3）“二次转型”的战略得到执行，公司贷款利率上浮比例提高。z资产质量好于同行业。招行2季度不良贷款余额持续下降，上半年不良净生成率（年化）为-0.13%。2季度单季信贷成本（年化）为0.27%，上半年为0.39%，拨备计提相对谨慎。z手续费净收入增长平稳，业务结构较好。手续费净收入环比增长10.5%，其中银行卡和代理手续费增长良好，占比较高，个人零售银行对手续费收入贡献较大。z下半年预测：净息差难大幅度超越同行业，有拨备释放利润的可能。招行下半压缩票据空间不大，储蓄重定价效应微弱；加息和资金利率大幅上升的可能小，招行下半年息差上升难大幅超越同行业。招行的拨备/贷款在股份制中仅次于光大，拨备/贷款为1.98%，考虑到招行核心资本充足率较低，招行在下半年有能力也有动机通过拨备释放利润。z不足：核心资本充足率较低。2季度末，核心资本充足率为8.05%。z投资建议：预计招商银行全年利润254亿，EPS为1.18元，对应10年PE和PB分别为11.8倍和2.18倍。我们之前推荐招行的逻辑基于其息差上升超预期，我们依旧长期看好招行，给予买入评级。推荐逻辑：1）“零售银行”是银行业未来发展的方向，招行仍具有该方面优势；2）招行的发展模式，资本相对节约；3）招行资产质量相对较好，同时拨备对风险的抵御能力强；4）招行“二次转型”执行效果在报表中逐渐体现，转型有利于提高招行长期盈利能力。最近52周与沪深300对比股份走势图-40%0%40%80%120%160%09-0809-1110-0110-0410-06招商银行沪深300经营预测与估值2009A20101Q2010E2011E营业收入(百万元)51446.015620.067,72175,987(+/-%)-7.030.93112归属母公司净利润(百万元)18235.05909.025,44828,277(+/-%)-13.540.44011EPS(元)0.850.271.181.31P/E(倍)16.450.711.7810.60资料来源：华泰联合证券资料来源：公司数据，华泰联合证券预测最近52周与沪深300对比股份走势图-40%0%40%80%120%160%09-0809-1010-0110-0310-05民生银行沪深300经营预测与估值2009A2010H12010E2011E营业收入(百万元)42060.026086.051,46658,579(+/-%)20.122.82414归属母公司净利润(百万元)12104.08866.015,91216,835(+/-%)53.520.2316EPS(元)0.450.330.600.63P/E(倍)11.916.29.058.55资料来源：华泰联合证券资料来源：公司数据，华泰联合证券预测公司研究/更新报告2010-08-18谨请参阅尾页重要申明及华泰联合证券股票和行业评级标准2图1业绩同比的归因分析图2单季业绩环比的归因年度同比业绩增长拆分19%22%16%-7%-7%20%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%规模增长净息差非息收入成本拨备税收季度环比业绩增长拆分4%7%12%1%0%0%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%规模增长净息差非息收入成本拨备税收资料来源：华泰联合证券研究资料来源：华泰联合证券研究图3单季度营业收入/营业支出图4单季所得税税率营业支出/营业收入34.38%33.09%36.90%35.03%30.40%33.84%53.96%41.69%43.30%44.23%35.15%35.08%49.23%29.91%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%1Q071H073Q074Q071Q081H083Q084Q081Q092Q093Q094Q091Q102Q10所得税率19.86%23.99%21.38%23.62%7.42%15.18%22.76%12.99%22.26%22.73%22.43%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%20071Q081H083Q0820081Q091H093Q094Q091Q101H10资料来源：华泰联合证券研究资料来源：华泰联合证券研究图5单季度的净息差（年化）净息差（单季年化）2.95%3.32%3.38%3.53%3.58%3.33%3.00%2.30%1.99%2.14%2.53%2.40%2.28%3.58%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%Q107Q207Q307Q4071Q081H08Q308Q4081Q092Q093Q094Q091Q101H10资料来源：华泰联合证券研究，公司公告公司研究/更新报告2010-08-18谨请参阅尾页重要申明及华泰联合证券股票和行业评级标准3图6不良净生成率（半年年化）-0.56%0.16%-0.31%0.27%0.06%0.10%-0.13%-0.70%-0.60%-0.50%-0.40%-0.30%-0.20%-0.10%0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%1H072H071H082H081H092H091H10不良净生成率（半年年化）资料来源：华泰联合证券研究，公司公告图7单季度的信贷成本（年化）0.68%0.39%0.46%0.65%0.25%0.54%0.41%0.84%0.34%0.75%0.03%0.09%0.51%0.27%0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%0.70%0.80%0.90%1Q071H073Q0720071Q081H083Q0820081Q091H093Q094Q091Q101H10拨备/贷款均值(单季度年化)资料来源：华泰联合证券研究，公司公告公司研究/更新报告2010-08-18谨请参阅尾页重要申明及华泰联合证券股票和行业评级标准4关键指标及盈利预测资料来源：华泰联合证券研究.2007200820092010E2011E2007200820092010E2011E每股指标:利润表:PE13.399.7414.5511.7810.60利息收入51,58572,63565,83886,33098,260PB3.002.562.862.181.88利息支出(17,683)(25,750)(25,474)(29,429)(33,723)EPS1.041.420.951.181.31净利息收入33,90246,88540,36456,90164,537BVPS4.625.434.856.367.37手续费净收入6,4397,7447,9938,8979,912每股拨备前利润1.431.821.171.511.68营业收入41,08655,54951,56267,72175,987驱动性因素：营业支出(16,738)(23,636)(26,207)(30,346)(34,078)生息资产增长40.42%16.57%31.04%17.91%18.19%拨备前利润24,34831,91325,35537,37541,909贷款增长19.11%30.31%35.00%20.00%20.00%拨备(3,305)(5,154)(2,971)(4,784)(5,698)存款增长21.94%32.55%28.59%22.00%20.00%税前利润21,04326,75922,38432,59136,211贷款收益率6.30%6.76%4.73%4.85%4.73%税后利润15,24321,07718,23525,44828,277生息资产收益率4.58%5.29%3.72%3.95%3.80%资产负债表：计息负债付息率1.69%2.03%1.55%1.46%1.40%贷款673,167874,3621,185,8221,422,9861,707,584净息差3.01%3.42%2.28%2.60%2.50%投资类资产248,970289,672335,510404,334447,711信贷成本0.53%0.48%0.29%0.37%0.36%同业资产392,211368,067486,292539,774642,431手续费净收入增长率136.64%20.27%3.22%11.31%11.41%其他资产14,95461,30484,32233,60438,204营业费用/营业支出34.94%36.62%42.00%39.00%39.00%资产总额1,310,5521,571,7972,067,9412,372,6872,803,071所得税税率27.56%21.72%18.54%21.92%21.91%存款943,5341,250,6481,608,1461,961,9382,354,326盈利及杜邦分析：同业融资268,068165,916184,337199,084209,038ROAE24.76%28.53%21.13%22.11%19.06%发行债券13,51340,27840,73140,73140,731ROAA1.36%1.46%1.00%1.15%1.09%其他负债17,45335,174141,94433,52939,656净利息收入4.60%5.04%3.62%3.89%3.80%负债总额1,242,5681,492,0161,975,1582,235,2822,643,751非净利息收入0.64%0.60%0.62%0.49%0.44%股东权益67,98479,78192,783137,405159,320营业收入3.66%3.85%2.83%3.05%2.94%(未分配利润）12,09325,71932,12353,50670,096营业支出-1.49%-1.64%-1.44%-1.37%-1.32%资本状况：拨备前利润2.17%2.21%1.39%1.68%1.62%资本充足率10.67%11.34%8.96%11.64%11.25%拨备-0.29%-0.36%-0.16%-0.22%-0.22%核心资本充足率9.09%6.56%6.63%8.30%8.41%税前利润1.87%1.86%1.23%1.47%1.40%杠杆率1920221718税收-0.52%-0.40%-0.23%-0.32%-0.31%RORWA2.43%2.61%1.75%2.01%1.88%业绩年增长率：风险加权系数53.46%58.35%56.18%58.00%58.00%净利息收入57.62%38.30%-13.91%40.97%13.42%资产质量：营业收入65.23%35.20%-7.18%31.34%12.21%不良贷款率1.54%1.11%0.82%0.75%0.88%拨备前利润76.75%31.07%-20.55%47.41%12.13%不良贷款覆盖率180.39%223.29%246.66%263.47%219.14%税后利润124.36%38.28%-13.48%39.56%11.11%拨备/贷款均值0.53%0.48%0.29%0.37%0.36%不良贷款净生成率-0.19%-0.01%-0.