高盛高华证券--农产品最新分析：上调主要农作物的价格

2010年7月14日商品农产品最新分析研究报告上调主要农作物的价格预测，但仍最看好玉米需求强于预期以及美国和全球供应前景普遍趋紧促使我们上调了对玉米、小麦及大豆的价格预测。从目前的价格水平来看，此次调整印证了我们对玉米前景的积极看法、对小麦的中性看法以及对大豆的略微悲观的看法。上调玉米价格预测，意味着上行空间更大我们对玉米价格持积极看法的原因在于我们预测来自乙醇的需求将强劲增长而且美国产量将低于最近的趋势水平。过去一个月的数据表明，玉米市场的趋紧比我们原先所预计的更早、程度更强，因此我们将玉米价格的3个月预测上调至415美分/蒲式耳，将6个月和12个月预测上调至450美分/蒲式耳。新预测较当前远期曲线的上行空间比我们原先预计的更大。上调小麦价格预测，但维持中性看法我们预计小麦价格将呈区间震荡态势，因为我们认为美国和全球小麦市场来年的供应依然充足。虽然我们的看法没有改变，但是目前外国产量的不确定性以及小麦市场供需状况的略微收紧（主要是因为小麦饲料的需求高于预期）使得我们上调了小麦价格预测，而我们仍然预计小麦和玉米的价差将收窄。目前我们预计3个月、6个月及12个月的小麦价格将分别达到520美分/蒲式耳、550美分/蒲式耳及575美分/蒲式耳，略低于远期曲线。上调大豆价格预测，意味着价格的下行空间缩小虽然我们仍预计2010/2011年美国的大豆库存将复苏，但是新兴市场需求持续强劲以及美国产量低于预期表明库存的复苏程度将低于之前的预测。因此，我们预计短期内大豆价格将停留在较高水平，并将3个月价格预测上调至975美分/蒲式耳。就中期而言，我们依然认为较高的南美大豆产量可能会小幅推低价格，但是将6个月和12个月价格预测上调至950美分/蒲式耳。尽管调高了价格预测，但是我们依然对大豆持略微悲观的看法（较当前远期曲线而言）。DamienCourvalin+44(20)[e-mail]高盛国际AllisonF.Nathan(212)[e-mail]高盛集团高盛集团与本研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。关于重要的信息披露，请参阅信息披露之前的部分或登陆或请与您的投资代表联系。高盛集团高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究2010年7月14日商品高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究2HedgingandtradingrecommendationsAgricultureHedgingrecommendationsConsumers:WeexpectfurthertighteningofthecornbalancesonourexpectationforstrongdemandgrowthfromethanolaswellasourexpectationsthatUSyieldswillcomeinbelowrecenttrendlevels.Accordingly,webelievecornpriceriskisskewedtotheupsidegoingforward.Asaresult,wemaintainthatcurrentcornpricesareprovidingacompellingopportunityforconsumerstolayerinupsideprotection.Relativelyinexpensivevolatilityisprovidinganattractiveopportunityforlow-costupsideprotectionthatalsoallowsdownsideparticipation.Producers:Asweremainneutraltoonlymarginallybearishacrossmostoftheagriculturalcomplexatthistime–withtheexceptionofcorn–wedonotbelievethatcurrentpricelevelsprovideparticularlyattractiveopportunitiesforproducers.TradingrecommendationsWecontinuetofavorlongpositionsincornowingtoexpectedtighterbalancesintheupcomingcropyearandourconstructiveoilforecast,whichwilllikelylendsomesupporttocorn.Webelievethatoverthelongtermsoybeanoffersthemostcompellingdrivers,asexpectedstrongdemandgrowthfromEMwilllikelyleavethemarketparticularlysensitivetonegativesupplyshocks.Wewouldthereforetakeadvantageofweaknessesinsoybeanpricestopositionforfuturestrength.CurrenttradingrecommendationsSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.LongPlatinumBuyOctober2010NYMEXPlatinumJuly15,2009-CommodityWatch$1,595.5/toz$1,515.3/toz$345.9/tozLongWTIBuyDecember2010NYMEXWTIFebruary5,2010-CommodityWatch$77.75/bbl$76.99/bbl($0.76/bbl)LongCopperBuyDecember2010CopperMay18,2010-Metals$6,508/mt$6,645/mt$137/mt¹AsofcloseonJuly12,2010.Inclusiveofallpreviousrollingprofits/losses.Currentprofit/(loss)1RolledonJune20,2010fromaBuyJuly2010NYMEXPlatinumfora$426.1/tozgainCurrenttradesFirstrecommendedInitialvalueCurrentValue2010年7月14日商品高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究3Priceactions,volatilitiesandforecastsunits12JulChangeImplied2ChangeRealized2Change4Q081Q092Q093Q094Q091Q103m6m12mEnergy1.170.02-0.02-0.04-0.398.52IndustrialMetals426151-345116PreciousMetals-30-0.3Agriculture818622-116431.30.61.71Monthlychangeisdifferenceofcloseonlastbusinessdayandcloseamonthago.2Monthlyvolatilitychangeisdifferenceofaveragevolatilityoverthepastmonthandthatofthepriormonth(3-moATMimpliedvolatility,1-morealizedvolatility).3Priceforecastsrefertopromptcontractpriceforecastsin3-,6-,and12-monthstime.4BasedonLMEthreemonthprices.2.132.541.861.941.251.712.112.26-1.7928.9-5.91.34RBOBGasoline$/gal2.0336.296.50BrentCrudeOil$/bbl74.3734.0-2.5927.2-9.057.4945.7285.5085.5059.7968.2459.9068.8775.5477.37HistoricalPrices59.0843.31-9.998.0076.1378.8887.0087.00Volatilities(%)andmonthlychanges2Pricesandmonthlychanges1WTICrudeOil$/bblPriceForecasts374.9534.8-3.0629.3-2.4132.6-2.41.786.006.004.995.501.281.511.731.942.352.52NYMEXNat.Gas$/mmBtu4.3955.12.012.30USGCHeatingOil$/gal1.9334.53.444.936.4047.85.96.40-4.8945.6-7.165.594.473.81215022102199200045.3027.5723.4831.8336.0036.00LMEAluminum$/mt197132.333.3532.90UKNBPNat.Gasp/th49.3352.618362037-3.3427.2-11.71885-3.0234.1-10.339481401153022000200002016321000349447085856667779008050LMENickel$/mt1920049.672746800LMECopper$/mt663039.117576175930.4444.1-13.0111180.0043.2-13.6121910625131471275133511101220120815091780224121002225LondonGold$/troyoz119921.023072000LMEZinc$/mt185644.69621099-0.9117.20.2796-1.4831.5-8.910.291092355057549652012.613.814.717.621.322.3CBOTWheatcent/bu52128.416.920.4LondonSilver$/troyoz18.132.24855220.0832.513.25470.6915.0-2.1896548564450450370415942112810491002950950CBOTCorncent/bu37128.8955975CBOTSoybeancent/bu103224.2327386-1.4338.912.5384n/a13.6-2.947377406140140134140465460717070NYBOTCoffeecent/lb161n/a7670NYBOTCottoncent/lb77n/a125139n/a43.116.6112n/a26.20.4225211312415.012.024.415.0255324992867325927002700NYBOTSugarcent/lb17.134.130703100NYBOTCocoa$/mt2962n/a20.623.6-1.5749.3-0.211.6n/a10.4-4.188.712.714.785.080.069.795.083.883.085.483.6100.0110.0CMELeanHogcent/lb79.5n/a90.5100.0CMELiveCattlecent/lb90.1n/a60.163.253.757.8n/a26.18.959.1Source:GoldmanSachsGlo